Free shipping threshold
Hypothesis
Introducing a $150 free shipping threshold will increase AOV by nudging Classic single-bag buyers to upgrade to the Roller or add a second bag to qualify, with the incremental AOV lift more than offsetting any CVR loss from customers who decline to upgrade and proceed with the $5.99 fee.
What we learned
• The $21 gap to hit the $150 threshold cannot be closed with a small add-on: the only paid SKU available is a full bag at $129+. The real customer choice is pay $5.99 shipping or add another $129 bag to cart, which is not a nudge, it's a full repurchase decision. Unsurprisingly, customers paid the $5.99 and checked out. • The "Shipping & taxes calculated at checkout" line already sits below the subtotal. Adding a free shipping threshold bar directly above it creates a direct contradiction: one element promises free shipping is achievable, the other defers all shipping costs to checkout. Customers have no way to know what they'll actually pay until they leave the cart. • AOV is completely flat ($179.07 vs $178.80). The upgrade mechanic did not fire; no customers closed the gap, they abandoned instead. • This is the fourth consecutive cart drawer test to lose: LX-JAN05 (-6.2% CVR), LX-30 (-11.2% CVR), LX-38 (-8.88% CVR). The cart drawer has a consistently low tolerance for any element that adds a condition or decision between open cart and checkout.
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