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LossArdantSitewideAR-JAN04

Increase the price of bestsellers (+$2/+$5)

Before
Before
After
AfterAfter
-$480K/yr
Projected annual revenue
-8.9%
Conversion
-7.1%
Rev / visitor

Hypothesis

By increasing the price of our 8 best-selling products by $2 (Variation 1) and $5 (Variation 2), we expect to see minimal impact on conversion rate while increasing revenue per transaction. Given these products' strong value propositions (comfort, security, premium quality), established demand, and lack of direct competitors at this price point, we hypothesize that demand is relatively inelastic within this range. If conversion rate remains stable or decreases minimally, the higher price point will yield net positive revenue impact.

What we learned

Immediate Impact (13-day test period) Variation 1 (+$2): • CVR: -8% (0.985% → 0.906%) • RPV: -6% ($1.12 → $1.05) • PPV: -6% ($0.87 → $0.82) • AOV: +2% ($113.90 → $115.84) • Est. -468 orders/month · Est. -$42,841 revenue/month · Est. -$30,178 profit/month Variation 2 (+$5): • CVR: -18% (0.985% → 0.812%) • RPV: -14% ($1.12 → $0.97) • PPV: -13% ($0.87 → $0.76) • AOV: +4% ($113.90 → $118.95) Key Learnings: ❌ Demand is more elastic than expected. Strong reviews, proven demand, and no direct competitor didn't protect against price sensitivity. Even a $2 increase created measurable friction. ❌ AOV increase is a false positive. Fewer people bought and the ones who did simply paid the new price. RPV fell in both variations, which is the only metric that matters here. ⚠️ $5 is a hard rejection. -18% CVR is not a marginal loss. Variation 2 is off the table entirely. ⚠️ Cash flow impact is real. -$42,841/month in estimated lost revenue on Variation 1 alone makes this unsustainable at current acquisition costs. Recommendation: LOSER, Do not ship either variation.

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